Market Overview -Nov. 2011

Overall Market Comment:

Members of the Greater Louisville Association of Realtors® posted 870 sales during the month of November 2011. This month’s sales figures continued a well established trend of outpacing the same period last year, which posted 772 sales during November 2010. The November 2011 sales were 13% stronger than November 2010, continued evidence that the local market has adapted to the post‐Home Buyer Tax Credit market of early 2010. The current year‐to‐date sales figures are behind a similar period in 2010, down nearly 5% to 10,115 sold units from 10,595, but strong sales over the past 4 months have closed the gap that was double digits. The average selling price for November 2011 was $156,903, down $5,678 from October 2011, and down $16,263 when viewed against November 2010. The year‐to‐date average sales price of $163,557 for 2011 remains close to the year‐to‐date figure from 2010, $165,788.

For the year, average sales prices have retreated from their peak in July 2011, but remain above the low for 2011 which was posted in March at $152,801. Inventory, or the number of homes for sale, fell to their lowest level of the year, to 7,825 units in November, from 8,373 in October and 8,704 units in September. The number of homes for sale continues to exceed 2010 levels and remains at a 9 monthsupply; inventory levels near a 6 month supply are often associated with an in‐balance market.

Overall, GLAR members continue to sell homes and move inventory in a challenging market. Realtors® continue to absorb a barrage of housing news and data, likewise, buyers and sellers are also saturated with headlines relative to the housing market, whether a bottom has been reached, the depth of foreclosures and low mortgage interest rates. The fact remains that Metro Louisville home prices have retreated from 2010 levels, but remain above lows posted in the current year. Sales volume has gained strength over the past 120 days, with year‐to‐date sales lagging only 480 units behind last year. Yearendfigures are expected to be posted next month and will likely show a 4‐5% loss in volume, when compared to 2010. 


Jefferson County Market Comment:
Realtors® posted 617 closed sales in Jefferson County in November, a decline of 3% from October, but an increase of 11% over November 2010. For the year, the average Jefferson County selling price has lost 3% from a similar period last year. The supply of homes on the market in Jefferson County stands at 4791, down 408 units from October, but up 446 units from November 2010. At the current absorption rate, the county has a 8 month inventory of homes on the market. Year‐to‐date sales in the county stand at 7036 units, down 5% from a similar period last year. In summary, the Jefferson County market followed the broader GLAR analysis by posting an increase in sales volume when matched against the same period last year, while recording the lowest inventory level of the year.

Oldham County Market Comment:
The number of closed sales in Nov 2011 almost mirrored closed sales of Nov 2010, bringing the YTD total up 7.8% compared to the same time last year. The YTD median price figure was up 1% ($236k vs $234k) and is less volatile than single month data points. The number of sales going under contract in Nov 2011 was 48 vs. 52 during Nov 2010, and the inventory of unsold homes remained higher than last year by 10%. Continued low mortgage rates, improved local employment trends and consumer confidence will be the key factors that will allow for the absorption of the current inventory of homes and the resumption of a balanced market in Oldham County.

Bullitt County Market Comment:
Realtors® posted 66 closed sales in Bullitt County in November 2011, nearly even with the 63 units sold in October and 65 units closed in September 2011. However, the November sales were up nearly 136% from November 2010. The average selling price in the county for November was $137,666, down $4,920 from October, and down 7% from November 2010. Year‐to‐date sales, in the county, stand at 689 units, down 3% from a similar period in 2010. Supply, or the number of homes on the market, has fallen to 546 units, down 19 units from October, but up nearly 14% from a similar period in 2010.


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